Probabilistic Cost Analysis

Probabilistic Cost Analysis

A $5 million project never costs exactly $5 million.  Deterministic cost estimates, based upon single points in time, are only accurate under conditions of absolute certainty.  Probabilistic cost estimating is required for the real world where uncertainty abounds.  Refusing to account for uncertainty may result in a perfect estimate, but that perfection will be tarnished by reality when unforeseen circumstances arise.  We specialize in accounting for uncertainty and making our clients aware of which cost ranges are realistic, the conditions required to achieve them, and the probability that those conditions can occur.  Without technical evaluation, cost estimating is based on a static approach that considers only one scenario rather than building in the flexibility needed for innovation and creativity.  We provide our clients with robust cost analyses built for the real world.